Ahbash movement and the Ethiopian governments role in its activities appears to be escalating and becoming more public. A recently released
two part Amharic documentary on the Ahbash and its activities in Ethiopia may give some insight on how the issue may spiral out and put the poor country in unnecessary trans-border conflict.
Though I hate to talk about sectarian division and politics, I find it unavoidable to give some insight as a warning and to understand the seriousness of the situation, before it is too late.
Ahbash was founded in Lebanon, a country where political and social structure is defined by sectarian division . The country`s
socio-political structure and the tension has made the involvement of various countries inevitable, exploiting the local division. The country was under the direct influence of the Syrian regime, until it was forced to withdraw following the
Hariri killing in 2006.
Ahbash which often accused of aligning with the powerful side, enjoyed a good relationship with Syrian regime which helped it to occupy mosques by force. The forced withdrawal of the Syrian which used to have a long arm has somehow shaken the Ahbash political power. However Syria and Iran , both though sometime compete, could maintain their influence through their political allies, March 8 led by
Hizbullah.
March 14 alliance is the rival , which is led by the
Musakbal party .
Hariri, a close ally of the Saudi, leads the March 14 alliance. Even though
Ahbash claim to be the guardian of the Sunnis ( Syrian wanted to play that role to silence the strong Sunni opposition through them), and try to contest the
Harir party, an arch enemy of the Syrian regime, it doesn't have any political weight on the ground on its won ,as it has failed to secure even a single seat in the parliament. The
Hariri party uses the Gulf states led by Saudi to balance the
Irano-Syrian influence. The
riviality between Saudi and Iran has never been in public than it is recently, and the relationship between Syria and Saudi has been always full of tension. All this is mainly, due the detestable sectarianism of the two dictator regimes.
Currently, Syria regime is being shattered by pro-democracy protesters and it may be only a matter of time before its fall, which may yet be another blow to
Ahbash. This may turn somehow Lebanon into turmoil, but definitely make the Saudi alliance more influential.
Ahbash, which are often accused of making all necessary compromises even in its ideology for political collusion, may face its biggest challenge of survival once Saudi axis start to play assertive role in defining the Lebanese politics.
Moreover, Arab spring is changing in the perception of the world and, after they have seen how the Muslim world are thirsty for freedom and have sacrificed to get rid off the dictators peacefully. Now,
Islamists has won in Tunisia and Morocco and on their way in Egypt. The political parties won in this country are surprising the world in their view and openness and the way they abide by democratic games. As the dictators and monarchies fall one after the other and democracy prevails , the
islamist scare crow which they used to protect their power is also falling apart. That would change the political mind set driving the world, and the discourse of the Arab Israeli conflict. All that, would weaken the ground for political collusion with groups like
Ahbash.
The ongoing socio-political dynamics of the region may have already worrying the Ahbash, as it may soon lose its base, Lebanon. Ahbash may already considering Ethiopia, the home of its founder, as an alternative save heaven. This may draw the attention of the world into Ethiopia with the risk of turning it into a new global sectarian battle field. That would put Ethiopia at a vulnerable end difficult position , perhaps become the new Lebanon , but without much global support due to the ongoing political dynamics which may change the current global political alignment basis . Time will tell how things will unfold in the coming years, if no proper measures are taken to diffuse the tension before it is too late.
Labels: Ethiopai, Extremisim, tolerance