EPRDF lost its final political base

Muslim Ethiopians who make over half of the Ethiopian population has for the last two decades backing the EPRDF almost unreservedly, hoping that it is the beginning of the real change. It was common to see Muslims defending EPRDF government , making all kinds of excuses for its shortcoming in the face of growing oppositions and international criticism.

That has changed, and perhaps for good and abruptly. Today you would hardly differentiate many activists who used to be a die hard defenders of EPRDF from that of strong oppositions, when you listen to their terminologies and level of criticisms.

The change came after all the hopes that Muslims had in EPRDF is dashed by its blatant interference in religious affairs in unprecedented way. EPRDF may have under estimated the repercussion of depriving the freedom and right of an individual to believe, and risk of imposing specific believes.

It is apparent that EPRDF has definitely lost the Muslim, and damage control may not work in restoring the trust. If the provocation was to incite conflict, and incite discord ..then that has so far failed and Muslims are very clear on who should be blamed and openly discussing how they should address it. They may not be well connected , but they are much better than perhaps many, including decision makers, think.

EPRDF has indeed given an assignment to the Muslims which would test their ability to overcome challenges.However, by doing so EPRDF has put even a bigger challenge ahead of itself. If the current trend continues then EPRDF wouldn't have comfortable time when thinking of renewing its power through popular vote. That is, if there is no plan to set aside of abiding by the popular votes, where some claim to be already the case.

Some opposition parties are already trying to seize this opportunity to ensure the backing of the Muslims. Many Muslims have suspicion on the political agenda of the oppositions and there is a trust issue. However, recently at least some Muslims are no more shy of expressing the importance of engaging with the oppositions at discussion level. If the opposition, which are largely seen `Sectarian Club` by Muslims succeed in forging an understanding that gets beyond certain sect/religion/group, and could take steps to develop trust, then that could be a big step forward in Ethiopian political development. If that is something that would be materialized depends on the steps taken by the two sides, and how EPRDF would handle its mistakes...but it is obviously not an easy overnight task.